MD 0773 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PA...NRN MD...NE WV PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA...NRN MD...NE WV PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222220Z - 222345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS. AN EWD EXTENSION OF WW 211 COULD BE CONSIDERED...BUT A
NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED
NEAR THE E EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED/WEAK OUTFLOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NE WV PANHANDLE/WRN MD
PANHANDLE INTO S CENTRAL PA. SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN FROM NRN VA/NRN MD INTO SE
PA...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LARGER BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR
BECOMES QUITE WEAK WITH EWD EXTENT...AND PRIMARILY SHORT-LIVED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. GIVEN
MODEST BUOYANCY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW DOWNBURSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS PRIOR TO
STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..THOMPSON.. 05/22/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39507711 39157755 39167799 39587795 40257790 40957808
41407772 41587713 41527657 41147640 40307681 39507711
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